← CLUSTERS | CLUSTER #31 66 markets
DASHBOARD ALERTS CLUSTERS STATUS
LOGIN/SIGNUP
22:31:51 UTC
EVENTS 66
AVG PROB 14.1%
AVG SPREAD 0.0%
VOL 24H 1.8M
PLOT 2000/146726
MAX POINTS
politics (60) other (5) technology (1)
drag to pan - wheel to zoom - double-click to reset
Event Poly Kalshi Manifold Choice Prob Spread Vol Sig
French election called by June 30, 2026? politics
49.5¢
--
--
YES 50%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? politics
25.5¢
--
--
YES 26%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Pierre-Yves Bournazel win the Paris mayor election? politics
0.4¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C31
Will David Belliard win the Paris mayor election? politics
0.2¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Sophia Chikirou win the Paris mayor election? politics
0.4¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Thierry Mariani win the Paris mayor election? politics
0.2¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? politics
2.2¢
--
--
YES 2%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? politics
72.0¢
--
--
YES 72%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? politics
10.5¢
--
--
YES 11%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? politics
30.0¢
--
--
YES 30%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? politics
0.8¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? politics
15.0¢
--
--
YES 15%
--
--
✓
C31
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? politics
2.0¢
--
--
YES 2%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? politics
0.2¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? politics
0.4¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C31
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? politics
1.0¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? politics
3.9¢
--
--
YES 4%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? politics
5.0¢
--
--
YES 5%
--
--
✓
C31
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? politics
3.4¢
--
--
YES 3%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? politics
2.0¢
--
--
YES 2%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? politics
10.5¢
--
--
YES 11%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? politics
0.2¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? politics
0.2¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? politics
0.2¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? politics
6.4¢
--
--
YES 6%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? politics
0.2¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C31
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? politics
0.2¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? politics
0.2¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? politics
0.2¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? politics
0.2¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? politics
0.2¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C31
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? politics
0.2¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? politics
0.2¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? politics
0.2¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? politics
1.8¢
--
--
YES 2%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? politics
0.6¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? politics
0.2¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? politics
0.6¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? politics
0.2¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? politics
0.2¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? politics
2.6¢
--
--
YES 3%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? politics
0.8¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? politics
0.2¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? politics
1.8¢
--
--
YES 2%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? politics
40.0¢
--
--
YES 40%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Christian Estrosi win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? politics
58.5¢
--
--
YES 59%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Jean-Marc Governatori win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? politics
0.2¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Juliette Chesnel-Leroux win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? politics
0.3¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Mireille Damiano win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? politics
0.2¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? politics
92.5¢
--
--
YES 93%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Grégory Doucet win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? politics
7.3¢
--
--
YES 7%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Anaïs Belouassa-Cherifi win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? politics
0.2¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Alexandre Dupalais win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? politics
0.2¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Georges Képénékian win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? politics
0.2¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C31
Will Nathalie Perrin-Gilbert win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? politics
0.4¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C31
Lecornu out as French PM by June 30, 2026? other
50.5¢
--
--
YES 51%
--
--
✓
C31
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026? other
43.0¢
--
--
YES 43%
--
--
✓
C31
Will the 'Yes' vote prevail in the Italian referendum on justice reform? politics
--
--
43.0¢
YES 43%
0.0%
--
✓
C31
Will Keir Starmer be UK Prime Minister at the end of 2030? other
--
--
10.9¢
YES 11%
--
6K
✓
C31
Will "Claude's new constitution" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? technology
--
--
28.0¢
YES 28%
--
6K
✓
C31
Will the Louvre director be fired or resign by 2027? other
--
--
51.7¢
YES 52%
0.0%
6K
✓
C31
Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031? other
--
--
61.4¢
YES 61%
0.0%
--
✓
C31
Will there be a war between Algeria and Morocco before 2031? geopolitics
--
--
35.5¢
YES 35%
--
1K
✓
C31
Will there be a war between Morocco and Algeria before 2034? geopolitics
--
--
64.7¢
YES 65%
--
1K
✓
C31
Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030? geopolitics
--
--
57.0¢
YES 57%
0.0%
6K
✓
C31
Will Switzerland pass the referendum 'No to a 10 Million Switzerland'? politics
--
--
32.8¢
YES 33%
--
6K
✓
C31
Cluster Stats
EVENTS
66
AVG PROB
14.1%
AVG SPREAD
0.0%
MAX SPREAD
0.0%
Price Divergence

— no significant divergence —

Arbitrage Signals
92%Δ
Will David Belliard win the Paris mayor election?
vs. Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?
92%Δ
Will Thierry Mariani win the Paris mayor election?
vs. Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?
92%Δ
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?
vs. Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?
92%Δ
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?
vs. Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?
92%Δ
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election?
vs. Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?
Directional Consensus
4 bull
8 neutral
52 bear
AI Analysis
Analysis generation failed: wrong number of arguments (given 1, expected 0)
Generated 2026-02-22 06:02 UTC