← CLUSTERS | CLUSTER #75 131 markets
DASHBOARD ALERTS CLUSTERS STATUS
LOGIN/SIGNUP
22:30:24 UTC
EVENTS 131
AVG PROB 21.2%
AVG SPREAD 0.0%
VOL 24H 3431.5M
PLOT 2000/146726
MAX POINTS
other (114) economics (11) sports (3)
drag to pan - wheel to zoom - double-click to reset
Event Poly Kalshi Manifold Choice Prob Spread Vol Sig
Will Slay the Spire 2 get a 90 or above on OpenCritic? other
--
--
75.7¢
YES 76%
0.0%
--
✓
C75
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? other
0.2¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C75
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? other
0.4¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C75
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? other
0.4¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C75
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? other
3.6¢
--
--
YES 4%
--
--
✓
C75
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026? other
2.2¢
--
--
YES 2%
--
--
✓
C75
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? other
3.6¢
--
--
YES 4%
--
--
✓
C75
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? other
3.4¢
--
--
YES 3%
--
--
✓
C75
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? other
36.0¢
--
--
YES 36%
--
--
✓
C75
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? other
14.0¢
--
--
YES 14%
--
--
✓
C75
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? other
1.2¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C75
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? other
1.4¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C75
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? other
29.0¢
--
--
YES 29%
--
--
✓
C75
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? other
0.4¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C75
Will Wuthering Heights have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? other
0.4¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C75
Will Scream 7 have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? other
0.6¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C75
Will Michael have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? other
3.2¢
--
--
YES 3%
--
--
✓
C75
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? other
2.6¢
--
--
YES 3%
--
--
✓
C75
Will Toy Story 5 have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? other
3.2¢
--
--
YES 3%
--
--
✓
C75
Will The Odyssey have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? other
3.5¢
--
--
YES 4%
--
--
✓
C75
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? other
10.5¢
--
--
YES 11%
--
--
✓
C75
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? other
73.5¢
--
--
YES 74%
--
--
✓
C75
Will Dune: Messiah have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? other
1.4¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C75
Will Project Hail Mary have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? other
0.2¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C75
Will Christopher Nolan have a new film release in theaters before EOY 2026? other
--
--
93.9¢
YES 94%
0.0%
--
✓
C75
Will If Anyone Builds It appear in a NYT bestseller list again? other
--
--
6.5¢
YES 6%
0.0%
--
✓
C75
Will Scott Alexander write a book review of Finnegans Wake? other
--
--
18.2¢
YES 18%
--
6K
✓
C75
Is Zena Cardman pregnant? other
--
--
5.7¢
YES 6%
0.0%
--
✓
C75
Will Wuthering Heights (2026) show an uncensored actor's penis? other
--
--
8.0¢
YES 8%
0.0%
1K
✓
C75
Project Hail Mary Rotten Tomatoes score? other
--
0.1¢
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C75
Pierce Brosnan announced as next James Bond? economics
0.2¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
261K
✓
C75
Will Starfleet Academy end the season with higher than a 5.0 on IMDB? other
--
--
33.9¢
YES 34%
--
6K
✓
C75
James Norton announced as next James Bond? economics
0.2¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
318K
✓
C75
Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond? economics
0.2¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
129K
✓
C75
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? other
5.0¢
--
--
YES 5%
--
9.7M
✓
C75
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? other
0.9¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
5.3M
✓
C75
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? other
2.6¢
--
--
YES 3%
--
10.0M
✓
C75
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? other
0.6¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
6.6M
✓
C75
Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? other
0.6¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
6.2M
✓
C75
Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? sports
0.6¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
5.0M
✓
C75
Will Sinners be the Oscars 2026 Best Picture Winner? other
--
--
23.0¢
YES 23%
--
1K
✓
C75
Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? other
0.4¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
4.7M
✓
C75
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? other
11.0¢
--
--
YES 11%
--
3.5M
✓
C75
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? other
4.5¢
--
--
YES 5%
--
2.7M
✓
C75
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? other
56.5¢
--
--
YES 56%
--
1.4M
✓
C75
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? other
26.5¢
--
--
YES 27%
--
16.8M
✓
C75
Will Delroy Lindo win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? other
2.4¢
--
--
YES 2%
--
605K
✓
C75
Will Jacob Elordi win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? other
4.4¢
--
--
YES 4%
--
595K
✓
C75
Will Emma Stone win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? other
1.3¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
456K
✓
C75
Will Kate Hudson win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? other
1.1¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
749K
✓
C75
Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards? other
91.5¢
--
--
YES 92%
--
432K
✓
C75
Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards? other
92.0¢
--
--
YES 92%
--
319K
✓
C75
Will Hamnet win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards? other
6.0¢
--
--
YES 6%
--
379K
✓
C75
Will Frankenstein win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards? other
0.8¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
133K
✓
C75
Will Train Dreams win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards? other
0.8¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
130K
✓
C75
Will Sinners win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards? other
5.6¢
--
--
YES 6%
--
288K
✓
C75
Will Marty Supreme win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? other
0.6¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
456K
✓
C75
Will Marty Supreme win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards? other
2.7¢
--
--
YES 3%
--
47K
✓
C75
Will One Battle After Another win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards? other
1.1¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
87K
✓
C75
Will Hamnet win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards? other
1.4¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
88K
✓
C75
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards? other
90.5¢
--
--
YES 91%
--
589K
✓
C75
Will Sinners win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards? other
6.7¢
--
--
YES 7%
--
54K
✓
C75
Will Sinners win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards? other
3.6¢
--
--
YES 4%
--
51K
✓
C75
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? other
75.5¢
--
72.0¢
YES 74%
--
7.9M
✓
C75
Will Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? other
6.4¢
--
--
YES 6%
--
486K
✓
C75
Will The Smashing Machine win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards? other
0.8¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
31K
✓
C75
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? economics
1.4¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
208K
✓
C75
No one announced as next James Bond? economics
48.5¢
--
--
YES 49%
--
1.6M
✓
C75
Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? other
5.1¢
--
--
YES 5%
--
985K
✓
C75
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? other
67.0¢
--
--
YES 67%
--
1.4M
✓
C75
Will Project Hail Mary score at least 90% on Rotten Tomatoes? other
--
--
65.3¢
YES 65%
0.0%
1K
✓
C75
Will Josh Safdie win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? other
0.6¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
2.8M
✓
C75
Outer Dark (McCarthy) film adaptation before 2028? other
--
--
63.4¢
YES 63%
--
5K
✓
C75
Netflix Successfully Acquires Warner? other
--
--
50.5¢
YES 50%
--
12K
✓
C75
Will Hamnet be the Oscars 2026 Best Picture Winner? other
--
--
7.9¢
YES 8%
0.0%
--
✓
C75
Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards? other
1.6¢
--
--
YES 2%
--
233K
✓
C75
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards? other
90.0¢
--
--
YES 90%
--
658K
✓
C75
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? other
4.7¢
--
--
YES 5%
--
1.7M
✓
C75
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? other
91.5¢
--
--
YES 92%
--
955K
✓
C75
Will Sentimental Value win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards? other
2.2¢
--
--
YES 2%
--
206K
✓
C75
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? other
92.5¢
--
--
YES 93%
--
2.8M
✓
C75
Will Marathon (Bungie's new game) release before the Legend of Zelda Movie (Nintendo)? sports
--
--
51.0¢
YES 51%
0.0%
--
✓
C75
Will Teyana Taylor win best supporting actress at OSCAR 2026 other
--
--
58.3¢
YES 58%
--
1K
✓
C75
Would the $100k H-1B fee apply to intl. students graduating in the U.S. or switching from OPT? other
--
--
25.3¢
YES 25%
--
13K
✓
C75
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? economics
7.4¢
--
--
YES 7%
--
328K
✓
C75
Will Chloé Zhao win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? other
1.6¢
--
--
YES 2%
--
720K
✓
C75
Will Marty Supreme be the Oscars 2026 Best Picture Winner? other
--
--
9.1¢
YES 9%
--
1K
✓
C75
Does One Battle After Another have what it takes to win Best Picture at the 98th Oscars? other
--
--
80.4¢
YES 80%
--
1K
✓
C75
"Hamnet" wins Best Picture? other
--
--
3.8¢
YES 4%
--
6K
✓
C75
Will I qualify for state video editing with this submission? other
--
--
52.2¢
YES 52%
--
6K
✓
C75
Tom Holland announced as next James Bond? economics
0.8¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
217K
✓
C75
Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? other
0.6¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
4.9M
✓
C75
Will Elle Fanning win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? other
1.8¢
--
--
YES 2%
--
583K
✓
C75
Will Blue Moon win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards? science
0.8¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
73K
✓
C75
Will Bugonia win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards? other
1.0¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
104K
✓
C75
Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards? other
75.5¢
--
--
YES 76%
--
635K
✓
C75
Will Sentimental Value win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards? other
0.4¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
102K
✓
C75
Will Frankenstein win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? other
0.6¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
414K
✓
C75
Will Kokuho win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards? other
0.8¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
15K
✓
C75
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? other
52.5¢
--
--
YES 53%
--
712K
✓
C75
Will Hamnet win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards? other
2.6¢
--
--
YES 3%
--
105K
✓
C75
Will any 2026 Oscar acceptance speech mention Trump by name? politics
--
--
28.5¢
YES 28%
--
1K
✓
C75
Paul Mescal announced as next James Bond? economics
0.2¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
308K
✓
C75
Will India Become Finalists this T20 worldcup? other
--
--
47.0¢
YES 47%
--
1K
✓
C75
Will One Battle After Another be the Oscars 2026 Best Picture Winner? other
--
--
58.0¢
YES 58%
--
1K
✓
C75
Will Marty Supreme win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards? other
4.4¢
--
--
YES 4%
--
271K
✓
C75
Will Joachim Trier win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? other
0.4¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
1.4M
✓
C75
Will Sinners win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards? other
4.6¢
--
--
YES 5%
--
43K
✓
C75
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards? other
2.2¢
--
--
YES 2%
--
24K
✓
C75
Will Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? other
1.5¢
--
--
YES 2%
--
407K
✓
C75
Will F1: The Movie win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards? sports
16.4¢
--
--
YES 16%
--
670K
✓
C75
Will Train Dreams win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? other
10.0¢
--
--
YES 10%
--
517K
✓
C75
Will Marty Supreme win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards? other
2.1¢
--
--
YES 2%
--
43K
✓
C75
Will The Ugly Stepsister win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards? other
1.4¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
17K
✓
C75
"One Battle After Another" wins Best Picture? other
--
--
75.4¢
YES 75%
--
60K
✓
C75
In the "Project Hail Mary" movie, will a Beatles song be played during the scene where the beetles are launched? other
--
--
84.7¢
YES 85%
--
1K
✓
C75
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? economics
11.2¢
--
--
YES 11%
--
310K
✓
C75
Harris Dickinson announced as next James Bond? politics
0.4¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
262K
✓
C75
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? economics
51.5¢
--
--
YES 52%
--
244K
✓
C75
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? other
13.8¢
--
--
YES 14%
--
6.9M
✓
C75
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? other
72.0¢
--
--
YES 72%
--
3.2M
✓
C75
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? other
7.4¢
--
--
YES 7%
--
1.8M
✓
C75
Will Renate Reinsve win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? other
1.4¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
562K
✓
C75
Will Rose Byrne win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? other
4.8¢
--
--
YES 5%
--
622K
✓
C75
Will Wunmi Mosaku win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? other
23.6¢
--
--
YES 24%
--
1.0M
✓
C75
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? other
16.7¢
--
--
YES 17%
--
1.4M
✓
C75
Will Marty Supreme win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards? other
1.3¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
381K
✓
C75
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? other
18.0¢
--
--
YES 18%
--
1.3M
✓
C75
Will Frankenstein win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards? other
95.5¢
--
--
YES 96%
--
277K
✓
C75
Will the Oscars Best Picture winner for 2025 pass the Bechdel Test? (awarded in 2026) other
--
--
93.0¢
YES 93%
--
1K
✓
C75
Jack Lowdon announced as next James Bond? economics
0.5¢
--
--
YES 1%
--
222K
✓
C75
Cluster Stats
EVENTS
131
AVG PROB
21.2%
AVG SPREAD
0.0%
MAX SPREAD
0.0%
Price Divergence

— no significant divergence —

Arbitrage Signals
94%Δ
Paul Mescal announced as next James Bond?
vs. Will Christopher Nolan have a new film release in theaters before EOY 2026?
94%Δ
Pierce Brosnan announced as next James Bond?
vs. Will Christopher Nolan have a new film release in theaters before EOY 2026?
94%Δ
Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond?
vs. Will Christopher Nolan have a new film release in theaters before EOY 2026?
94%Δ
James Norton announced as next James Bond?
vs. Will Christopher Nolan have a new film release in theaters before EOY 2026?
94%Δ
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?
vs. Will Christopher Nolan have a new film release in theaters before EOY 2026?
Directional Consensus
19 bull
6 neutral
96 bear
AI Analysis
Analysis generation failed: wrong number of arguments (given 1, expected 0)
Generated 2026-02-22 06:02 UTC