← CLUSTERS | CLUSTER #62 102 markets
DASHBOARD ALERTS CLUSTERS STATUS
LOGIN/SIGNUP
22:31:43 UTC
EVENTS 102
AVG PROB 25.9%
AVG SPREAD 0.0%
VOL 24H 1835.1M
PLOT 2000/146726
MAX POINTS
politics (65) other (33) technology (2)
drag to pan - wheel to zoom - double-click to reset
Event Poly Kalshi Manifold Choice Prob Spread Vol Sig
Will There be a US House member born after 1 Jan 2000 before 1 Feb 2027? politics
--
--
23.1¢
YES 23%
0.0%
--
✓
C62
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives before 2027? other
25.0¢
--
--
YES 25%
--
--
✓
C62
Will Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027? politics
7.0¢
--
--
YES 7%
--
--
✓
C62
Obama federally charged before 2027? politics
11.5¢
--
--
YES 12%
--
--
✓
C62
Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027? politics
50.5¢
--
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YES 51%
--
--
✓
C62
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? politics
63.5¢
--
--
YES 64%
--
--
✓
C62
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? politics
36.5¢
--
--
YES 37%
--
--
✓
C62
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? politics
41.5¢
--
--
YES 42%
--
--
✓
C62
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? politics
22.0¢
--
--
YES 22%
--
--
✓
C62
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027? politics
16.0¢
--
--
YES 16%
--
--
✓
C62
Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027? politics
17.0¢
--
--
YES 17%
--
--
✓
C62
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027? politics
39.0¢
--
--
YES 39%
--
--
✓
C62
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? politics
44.5¢
--
--
YES 45%
--
--
✓
C62
Will Lee Zeldin leave the Trump administration before 2027? politics
11.5¢
--
--
YES 12%
--
--
✓
C62
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? politics
35.5¢
--
--
YES 36%
--
--
✓
C62
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? politics
44.5¢
--
--
YES 45%
--
--
✓
C62
Trump out as President before 2027? politics
14.5¢
--
--
YES 14%
--
--
✓
C62
Will Trump resign before 2027? politics
6.5¢
--
--
YES 7%
--
--
✓
C62
Will Stephen Miller leave the Trump administration before 2027? politics
22.5¢
--
--
YES 23%
--
--
✓
C62
GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by March 31, 2026? politics
6.5¢
--
--
YES 7%
--
--
✓
C62
Modi out before 2027? politics
6.4¢
--
--
YES 6%
--
--
✓
C62
Fetterman out before 2027? other
32.0¢
--
--
YES 32%
--
--
✓
C62
Dan Clancy out as Twitch CEO before 2027? other
19.5¢
--
--
YES 20%
--
--
✓
C62
Andy Jassy out as Amazon CEO before 2027? technology
6.5¢
--
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YES 7%
--
--
✓
C62
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? politics
12.0¢
--
--
YES 12%
--
--
✓
C62
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams before 2027? politics
18.0¢
--
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YES 18%
--
--
✓
C62
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes before 2027? politics
12.5¢
--
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YES 13%
--
--
✓
C62
Will Trump end Department of Education before 2027? politics
6.0¢
--
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YES 6%
--
--
✓
C62
Will Trump pardon Stefan Brodie before 2027? politics
53.0¢
--
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YES 53%
--
--
✓
C62
Will Trump pardon Ryan Salame before 2027? politics
8.0¢
--
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YES 8%
--
--
✓
C62
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? other
27.0¢
--
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YES 27%
--
--
✓
C62
Will Aaron Rodgers retire before next season? other
28.5¢
--
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YES 28%
--
--
✓
C62
Apple to un-hide terminal by EOY 2027 technology
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--
9.4¢
YES 9%
0.0%
--
✓
C62
Will Sotomayor leave next? other
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5.8¢
YES 6%
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6K
✓
C62
Will Kristi Noem serve for Trump’s entire term? politics
--
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25.7¢
YES 26%
0.0%
--
✓
C62
Will @jollyroger182 consider herself a rationalist before March 2026? other
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33.0¢
YES 33%
0.0%
--
✓
C62
Will America annex any part of Canada before the end of 2026? other
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4.3¢
YES 4%
0.0%
--
✓
C62
Will Charles III remain the king for all of 2026? other
--
--
88.6¢
YES 89%
0.0%
--
✓
C62
US legislature (House or Senate) fails to swear in / seat an elected member after midterms politics
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26.5¢
YES 27%
0.0%
--
✓
C62
Will Disney+ shut down by the end of 2026? other
--
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10.0¢
YES 10%
--
1K
✓
C62
Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026? politics
10.5¢
--
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YES 11%
--
19.2M
✓
C62
Erdoğan out by end of 2026? other
6.5¢
--
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YES 7%
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1.5M
✓
C62
Kristi Noem is first to leave Trump's cabinet politics
--
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25.8¢
YES 26%
0.0%
--
✓
C62
Will Truist go bankrupt before 2030? other
--
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18.9¢
YES 19%
0.0%
--
✓
C62
Will any Manifold user be imprisoned in CECOT or a similar prison after deportation from the US during Trump's 2nd term? politics
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13.7¢
YES 14%
0.0%
--
✓
C62
Will the USA dissolve by 2034? other
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4.5¢
YES 5%
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6K
✓
C62
Will Gitmo or Cecot transition from concentration camps to full blown extermination camps by the 2028 US election? politics
--
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18.0¢
YES 18%
0.0%
--
✓
C62
Will Nick Fuentes be revealed to be a Fed before 2040? economics
--
--
24.0¢
YES 24%
--
6K
✓
C62
Will Donald Trump annex Greenland into the US before 2027? politics
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16.2¢
YES 16%
0.0%
1K
✓
C62
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? politics
25.5¢
--
--
YES 26%
--
13.4M
✓
C62
Will the UK abolish the Monarchy before 2030? other
--
--
8.0¢
YES 8%
--
1K
✓
C62
Kristi Noem impeached by the house in 2026? politics
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21.4¢
YES 21%
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1K
✓
C62
Will Thomas leave next? other
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24.5¢
YES 25%
--
6K
✓
C62
Will Alito leave next? other
--
--
66.4¢
YES 66%
--
1K
✓
C62
Will Greenland become part of the US by the end of Trump’s term? politics
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6.8¢
YES 7%
0.0%
--
✓
C62
Will Trump/USA buy or acquire part of Greenland? politics
--
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18.5¢
YES 18%
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6K
✓
C62
Will Warren Buffet live to 100? other
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25.2¢
YES 25%
0.0%
--
✓
C62
Will the president elected in 2028 die in office? politics
--
--
13.8¢
YES 14%
0.0%
--
✓
C62
5 currently elected top level Republican politicians will make race and IQ talking points before July 2026 politics
--
--
19.9¢
YES 20%
--
1K
✓
C62
Will Winston Peters be the leader of NZ First at the end of the next parliamentary term (likely 2026)? other
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74.7¢
YES 75%
0.0%
--
✓
C62
Jordi Hays Leaves TBPN by Dec. 2027 other
--
--
42.4¢
YES 42%
0.0%
--
✓
C62
Will the US Government make a show of declassifying everything on UFOs / UAPs before 2030 other
--
--
42.0¢
YES 42%
0.0%
--
✓
C62
Will Mark Carney still be Prime Minister of Canada on July 1st 2026? other
--
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93.0¢
YES 93%
--
1K
✓
C62
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? other
35.5¢
--
--
YES 36%
--
3.0M
✓
C62
Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election? politics
--
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94.6¢
YES 95%
--
6K
✓
C62
Will they announce a presidential library at Trump's Mar-A-Lago by the end of 2028? politics
--
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32.6¢
YES 33%
--
1K
✓
C62
Will Prince William become king by 2030? other
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61.0¢
YES 61%
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6K
✓
C62
Will Trump remove a university's tax exempt status by the end of 2026? politics
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12.6¢
YES 13%
0.0%
--
✓
C62
Will the UK be a constitutional monarchy in 2040? other
--
--
77.7¢
YES 78%
--
6K
✓
C62
Tulsi Gabbard is first to leave Trump's cabinet politics
--
--
14.1¢
YES 14%
0.0%
1K
✓
C62
Will Joe Biden still be alive at the beginning of 2030? politics
--
--
63.2¢
YES 63%
--
6K
✓
C62
Will Trump interfere with Greenland? politics
--
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40.0¢
YES 40%
0.0%
2K
✓
C62
Will Kavanaugh leave next? other
--
--
1.6¢
YES 2%
--
1K
✓
C62
Will MBS visit Mar-a-Lago by the end of 2028? other
--
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21.1¢
YES 21%
--
1K
✓
C62
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? politics
34.5¢
--
--
YES 35%
--
575K
✓
C62
Will Communism fall from power in Cuba by January 1, 2035? other
--
--
69.0¢
YES 69%
0.0%
6K
✓
C62
Will the US enter a recession by end of 2025? (Two quarters negative GDP growth) economics
--
--
1.1¢
YES 1%
--
60K
✓
C62
Biden passes away in a foreign country or in flight on Air Force One by end 2026 politics
--
--
4.0¢
YES 4%
0.0%
--
✓
C62
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump Cabinet this year? politics
--
--
46.9¢
YES 47%
0.0%
6K
✓
C62
Major revelation about Trump's health, negative, by mid 2027 politics
--
--
39.7¢
YES 40%
--
6K
✓
C62
Will the Trump administration sign a bilateral agreement to acquire land in Greenland by the end of 2026? politics
--
--
17.6¢
YES 18%
0.0%
--
✓
C62
Will Trump Die Before June 30th 2026 politics
--
--
7.0¢
YES 7%
--
1K
✓
C62
Will Kamala Harris resign in her first term? politics
--
--
4.4¢
YES 4%
--
6K
✓
C62
Trump's first cabinet member fired, failed, or resigned Pete Hegseth? politics
--
--
8.4¢
YES 8%
--
1K
✓
C62
Kristi Noem gone as Secretary of Homeland security before EOY 2026? other
--
--
48.1¢
YES 48%
--
3K
✓
C62
Will Melania die before trump's current term is up? politics
--
--
6.7¢
YES 7%
0.0%
1K
✓
C62
Will Trump be removed or resign from office before 2029? politics
--
--
10.0¢
YES 10%
--
1K
✓
C62
Xi Jinping out before 2027? politics
8.0¢
--
--
YES 8%
--
49.9M
✓
C62
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? politics
6.5¢
--
--
YES 7%
--
2.9M
✓
C62
Will a Supreme Court Justice retire or be replaced for any reason by the end of 2026? other
--
--
60.0¢
YES 60%
--
1K
✓
C62
Will Nick Fuentes go on Joe Rogan before the end of Trump's term? politics
--
--
13.5¢
YES 14%
--
9K
✓
C62
Will the United States have a Jewish president by end of 2040? politics
--
--
18.3¢
YES 18%
--
6K
✓
C62
Will Trump resign prior to the end of his term? politics
--
--
3.9¢
YES 4%
0.0%
1K
✓
C62
Will Trump administration eliminate federal income tax on gambling winnings? politics
--
--
25.0¢
YES 25%
--
1K
✓
C62
Will Nick Fuentes renounce white supremacy before the end of 2029? other
--
--
38.0¢
YES 38%
--
1K
✓
C62
Will the US President or UK Prime Minister confirm the existence of Non-Human Intelligence (NHI) before the end of 2026? politics
--
--
14.1¢
YES 14%
0.0%
6K
✓
C62
Will either major US political party split by 2029? other
--
--
19.1¢
YES 19%
--
1K
✓
C62
At any point before February 1, 2045, will there be a major third party in US politics? [read desc] other
--
--
36.0¢
YES 36%
--
1K
✓
C62
Will Trump admonish Poland for opening an investigation into the Epstein files? politics
--
--
3.4¢
YES 3%
--
6K
✓
C62
At least 1 G7 Country will have been under a fascist authoritarian regime for at least 6 months by 2035 politics
--
--
17.0¢
YES 17%
--
2K
✓
C62
By 2027, will it ever become media consensus that a Boeing Whistleblower died by foul play? other
--
--
6.5¢
YES 7%
--
6K
✓
C62
Will a US President (or Presidential Task Force) confirm an extraterrestrial or non-human intelligence by 2030? politics
--
--
30.0¢
YES 30%
0.0%
1K
✓
C62
Cluster Stats
EVENTS
102
AVG PROB
25.9%
AVG SPREAD
0.0%
MAX SPREAD
0.0%
Price Divergence

— no significant divergence —

Arbitrage Signals
91%Δ
Will Trump admonish Poland for opening an investigation into the Epstein files?
vs. Will Mark Carney still be Prime Minister of Canada on July 1st 2026?
90%Δ
Biden passes away in a foreign country or in flight on Air Force One by end 2026
vs. Will Mark Carney still be Prime Minister of Canada on July 1st 2026?
90%Δ
Will Trump resign prior to the end of his term?
vs. Will Mark Carney still be Prime Minister of Canada on July 1st 2026?
90%Δ
Will America annex any part of Canada before the end of 2026?
vs. Will Mark Carney still be Prime Minister of Canada on July 1st 2026?
90%Δ
Will Kamala Harris resign in her first term?
vs. Will Mark Carney still be Prime Minister of Canada on July 1st 2026?
Directional Consensus
5 bull
11 neutral
62 bear
AI Analysis
Analysis generation failed: wrong number of arguments (given 1, expected 0)
Generated 2026-02-22 06:02 UTC