← CLUSTERS | CLUSTER #48 227 markets
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22:30:53 UTC
EVENTS 227
AVG PROB 40.7%
AVG SPREAD 0.0%
VOL 24H 2999.3M
PLOT 2000/146726
MAX POINTS
other (137) technology (49) science (34)
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Event Poly Kalshi Manifold Choice Prob Spread Vol Sig
GPT-6 released in 2026? technology
--
--
78.2¢
YES 78%
0.0%
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✓
C48
Will I regret leaving Manifold? other
--
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3.0¢
YES 3%
0.0%
7K
✓
C48
Will there be a bridge open to traffic between Sicily and Italy at the end of 2029? other
--
--
3.6¢
YES 4%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will philosophy be solved before 2123? other
--
--
27.8¢
YES 28%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will Celeste from substack Celeste-land have worked at Anthropic by 1st Jan 2028 technology
--
--
25.1¢
YES 25%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? science
19.5¢
--
--
YES 20%
--
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✓
C48
Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027? other
12.5¢
--
--
YES 13%
--
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✓
C48
Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? other
34.0¢
--
--
YES 34%
--
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✓
C48
Will Austria recognize Palestine before 2027? other
13.0¢
--
--
YES 13%
--
--
✓
C48
Will Elon register any party before 2027? technology
15.8¢
--
--
YES 16%
--
--
✓
C48
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by March 31? other
7.5¢
--
--
YES 8%
--
--
✓
C48
GTA 6 launch postponed again? science
25.0¢
--
--
YES 25%
--
--
✓
C48
Will BLɅϽKPIИK release an album by February 28? other
98.7¢
--
--
YES 99%
--
--
✓
C48
Will StandX launch a token by March 31? science
6.5¢
--
--
YES 7%
--
--
✓
C48
Mistral AI IPO before 2027? technology
50.5¢
--
--
YES 51%
--
--
✓
C48
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? technology
20.0¢
--
--
YES 20%
--
--
✓
C48
Anthropic acquired before 2027? technology
8.5¢
--
--
YES 9%
--
--
✓
C48
Will Spark launch a token by March 31? science
60.5¢
--
--
YES 61%
--
--
✓
C48
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027? other
54.0¢
--
--
YES 54%
--
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✓
C48
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? science
98.6¢
--
--
YES 99%
--
--
✓
C48
Will NewJeans perform again by March 31? other
10.0¢
--
--
YES 10%
--
--
✓
C48
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? other
73.5¢
--
--
YES 74%
--
--
✓
C48
Will GMGN launch a token by March 31, 2026? science
34.5¢
--
--
YES 35%
--
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✓
C48
Will Extended launch a token by March 31 2026? science
91.4¢
--
--
YES 91%
--
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✓
C48
Will Extended launch a token by June 30 2026? science
68.5¢
--
--
YES 69%
--
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✓
C48
Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026? science
48.5¢
--
--
YES 49%
--
--
✓
C48
Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? science
87.4¢
--
--
YES 87%
--
--
✓
C48
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2026? science
58.5¢
--
--
YES 59%
--
--
✓
C48
Will Arc launch a token by March 31 2026? science
41.5¢
--
--
YES 42%
--
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✓
C48
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? science
50.5¢
--
--
YES 51%
--
--
✓
C48
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? science
83.5¢
--
--
YES 84%
--
--
✓
C48
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? science
45.5¢
--
--
YES 46%
--
--
✓
C48
New Half-Life game by March 31? sports
25.5¢
--
--
YES 26%
--
--
✓
C48
New Half-Life game by June 30? sports
30.5¢
--
--
YES 31%
--
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✓
C48
Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026? other
45.5¢
--
--
YES 46%
--
--
✓
C48
Will Railbird self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026? other
62.5¢
--
--
YES 63%
--
--
✓
C48
Will ForecastEx self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026? other
55.5¢
--
--
YES 56%
--
--
✓
C48
Will Intercontinental Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026? other
30.0¢
--
--
YES 30%
--
--
✓
C48
Will the Small Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026? other
74.0¢
--
--
YES 74%
--
--
✓
C48
Will LedgerX self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026? other
21.5¢
--
--
YES 22%
--
--
✓
C48
Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026? science
35.5¢
--
--
YES 36%
--
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✓
C48
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? other
18.5¢
--
--
YES 19%
--
--
✓
C48
Will BP be acquired before 2027? other
35.0¢
--
--
YES 35%
--
--
✓
C48
Will GitLab be acquired before 2027? other
33.5¢
--
--
YES 34%
--
--
✓
C48
Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2026? science
30.0¢
--
--
YES 30%
--
--
✓
C48
Will Ventuals launch a token by March 31 2026? science
70.8¢
--
--
YES 71%
--
--
✓
C48
Will Ventuals launch a token by June 30 2026? science
49.5¢
--
--
YES 50%
--
--
✓
C48
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? other
30.5¢
--
--
YES 31%
--
--
✓
C48
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? technology
17.0¢
--
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YES 17%
--
--
✓
C48
Will The Clearing Company self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026? other
28.4¢
--
--
YES 28%
--
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✓
C48
Will Tempo launch a token by March 31 2026? science
60.0¢
--
--
YES 60%
--
--
✓
C48
Will Tempo launch a token by June 30 2026? science
52.0¢
--
--
YES 52%
--
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✓
C48
Will Theo launch a token by March 31 2026? science
93.7¢
--
--
YES 94%
--
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✓
C48
Will Theo launch a token by June 30 2026? science
89.0¢
--
--
YES 89%
--
--
✓
C48
Will Solstice launch a token by March 31 2026? science
97.6¢
--
--
YES 98%
--
--
✓
C48
Will Solstice launch a token by June 30 2026? science
96.5¢
--
--
YES 97%
--
--
✓
C48
Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026 science
50.5¢
--
--
YES 51%
--
--
✓
C48
Will Fomo launch a token by March 31 2026? science
32.0¢
--
--
YES 32%
--
--
✓
C48
Will Paradex launch a token by March 31 2026? science
89.9¢
--
--
YES 90%
--
--
✓
C48
Will Paradex launch a token by June 30 2026? science
92.4¢
--
--
YES 92%
--
--
✓
C48
Will Paradex launch a token by February 28, 2026? science
49.6¢
--
--
YES 50%
--
--
✓
C48
Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027? technology
16.0¢
--
--
YES 16%
--
--
✓
C48
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? science
14.0¢
--
--
YES 14%
--
--
✓
C48
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? technology
50.0¢
--
--
YES 50%
--
--
✓
C48
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? technology
16.5¢
--
--
YES 17%
--
--
✓
C48
Will Apple release a new version of the Apple TV by March 31? technology
34.0¢
--
--
YES 34%
--
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✓
C48
Apple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027? technology
5.5¢
--
--
YES 6%
--
--
✓
C48
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? technology
92.0¢
--
--
YES 92%
--
--
✓
C48
Will Daylight launch a token by March 31, 2026? science
42.0¢
--
--
YES 42%
--
--
✓
C48
Will Daylight launch a token by June 30, 2026? science
43.0¢
--
--
YES 43%
--
--
✓
C48
If DeepSeek releases V4 in 2026, will there be articles about it in NYT, WSJ, and WaPo within two weeks of release? other
--
--
52.0¢
YES 52%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will a U.S. Federal Government entity create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? other
--
--
9.9¢
YES 10%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will 3+ different agents earn revenue on ClawMart by Feb 22, 2026? other
--
--
29.8¢
YES 30%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will Manifold consider Claude Sonnet 4.6 to be a frontier model? technology
--
--
81.6¢
YES 82%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
openrouter/aurora-alpha revealed as Codex-Spark other
--
--
73.0¢
YES 73%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will we reverse-engineer a language model into an interpretable (python) program by 2027? other
--
--
4.3¢
YES 4%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will we get AGI before July 1st 2029? technology
--
--
28.5¢
YES 28%
0.0%
7K
✓
C48
Will "The Winds of Winter" be published while George R. R. Martin is alive other
--
--
46.6¢
YES 47%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will Meta release a smartwatch in 2026? technology
--
--
36.0¢
YES 36%
0.0%
1K
✓
C48
Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year? other
--
--
87.3¢
YES 87%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will Fermat's last theorem proof be completely formalized in Lean in 2026? other
--
--
9.6¢
YES 10%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will I attend Hack Club: The Game? sports
--
--
48.0¢
YES 48%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will Claude Code support AGENTS.md in 2026? technology
--
--
62.0¢
YES 62%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Anthropic 'falls behind' by July 2026? technology
--
--
8.9¢
YES 9%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death? other
--
--
46.6¢
YES 47%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will Andrej Karpathy engage with the Anky/MetaSPN machine interiority post by March 1, 2026? other
--
--
7.3¢
YES 7%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will Harvard *or* MIT *or* both close on Monday February 23, 2026? other
--
--
99.0¢
YES 99%
--
--
✓
C48
GTA VI released in 2026? other
--
--
67.3¢
YES 67%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
[Metaculus] Will Harvard University announce an end to preferential legacy admissions before 2030? other
--
--
34.4¢
YES 34%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will we get a new Gemini, Claude, GPT, and Grok model this week? technology
--
--
0.8¢
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C48
GTA VI released before June 2026? other
3.5¢
--
--
YES 4%
--
45.0M
✓
C48
Was sonnet 5 meant to be released instead of Opus 4.6? other
--
--
2.6¢
YES 3%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will Valve announce new hardware prices in February 2026? other
--
--
3.0¢
YES 3%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will the Swift Centre beat Polymarket? other
--
--
65.0¢
YES 65%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will LLM hallucinations be a fixed problem by the end of 2028? technology
--
--
40.4¢
YES 40%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
JAX backend is implemented for statistical software Stan (before 2027) other
--
--
23.6¢
YES 24%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will Steve Boots come back bfore 6 months other
--
--
35.0¢
YES 35%
--
--
✓
C48
Will we get a new version of Gemini 3 Pro before getting Gemini 3.5 Pro? technology
--
--
9.2¢
YES 9%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will Linear A (Minoan Script Language) be deciphered by the end of 2029? other
--
--
12.0¢
YES 12%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will I reach the ruby palace in OTIS before the 2026 spring semester ends? other
--
--
55.7¢
YES 56%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will Manifold do a crypto airdrop before Jan 1st, 2028? crypto
--
--
31.5¢
YES 31%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will the next Wintergatan Marble Machine be used on a tour before 2030? other
--
--
41.3¢
YES 41%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will catgirls walk among us by the end of 2048? other
--
--
65.0¢
YES 65%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will something CRAZY happen on Moltbook by March? other
--
--
14.8¢
YES 15%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will there be a Kirby Air Ride 3 before 2035? other
--
--
45.2¢
YES 45%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Paris-Berlin Vactrain by 2070? other
--
--
21.0¢
YES 21%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will the Kirby anime (Kirby: Right Back At Ya!) have an English-language re-release before 2029? other
--
--
55.0¢
YES 55%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will the BB(6) machine be known by 2075? other
--
--
45.3¢
YES 45%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
GPT-5.3 released by EOD March 31? technology
--
--
84.5¢
YES 84%
--
1K
✓
C48
Will I talk with a whale by 2027? 🐳 other
--
--
18.5¢
YES 19%
--
6K
✓
C48
Will a 3000 lb pumpkin be grown and verified by the end of 2026? other
--
--
14.8¢
YES 15%
--
1K
✓
C48
Will Tumblr still exist by end of 2026? other
--
--
96.7¢
YES 97%
0.0%
6K
✓
C48
Will Bungie's Marathon game release by the end of 2026? sports
--
--
75.0¢
YES 75%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will Python 4 be released before 2030? other
--
--
9.8¢
YES 10%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will BTE's secret plan work? other
--
--
2.3¢
YES 2%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Rockstar Games releases GTA 6 before US Government releases Epstein files? other
--
--
29.4¢
YES 29%
--
1K
✓
C48
Will Stephen Wolfram and Michael Levin have a joint public conversation/podcast/panel in 2026? other
--
--
50.8¢
YES 51%
--
2K
✓
C48
OpenAI rolls out mandatory age verification for ChatGPT in the U.S. before March 1, 2026 technology
--
--
96.6¢
YES 97%
0.0%
1K
✓
C48
Will Stephenie Meyer publish another book set in the Twilight universe before 2027? 🧛‍♂️ other
--
--
33.4¢
YES 33%
--
1K
✓
C48
[ACX 2026] Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027? technology
--
--
18.6¢
YES 19%
--
31K
✓
C48
Will Good Humor sell Fat Frog ice cream again by the end of 2030? other
--
--
36.8¢
YES 37%
--
1K
✓
C48
Will @amitiscool repays his loan amounts in full by the end of the loan term? other
--
--
1.3¢
YES 1%
--
1K
✓
C48
Will we get AGI before 2032? technology
--
--
52.1¢
YES 52%
0.0%
62K
⚠
C48
Previously unpublished Cormac McCarthy work released before 2028? other
--
--
54.5¢
YES 55%
--
5K
✓
C48
Will "Don't Build It" March happen before Dec. 31, 2030? other
--
--
31.0¢
YES 31%
--
1K
✓
C48
Will I be engaged or married at the end of 2026? other
--
--
33.0¢
YES 33%
--
1K
✓
C48
Claude 5 released before March 31? technology
--
--
10.5¢
YES 10%
--
6K
✓
C48
Will Z-Library be online in the Internet after two years? other
--
--
99.0¢
YES 99%
--
6K
✓
C48
Any Top-5 Linux distro replace Xorg with XLibre (or any other alternative X-server) before 2029? other
--
--
18.5¢
YES 18%
--
1K
✓
C48
Will Half-life 3 be released before the end of 2027? other
--
--
28.0¢
YES 28%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2040? other
--
--
65.0¢
YES 65%
--
6K
✓
C48
Will Lady Gaga announce she’s performing in New Zealand before EOY 2027? other
--
--
45.2¢
YES 45%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026? technology
7.6¢
--
--
YES 8%
--
701K
✓
C48
Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text Nick Bostrom before 2028? other
--
--
15.7¢
YES 16%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will Pope Leo XIV be gifted Deltarune by 2030? other
--
--
25.0¢
YES 25%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will I learn how to play tractor before the end of 2026? other
--
--
53.0¢
YES 53%
--
1K
✓
C48
Will there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027? technology
--
--
42.9¢
YES 43%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Alien invasion before GTA6? geopolitics
--
--
3.0¢
YES 3%
--
1K
✓
C48
Will we fully interpret a GPT-2 level language model by 2028? technology
--
--
13.3¢
YES 13%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will Manifold be acquired by Kalshi by end of 2030? other
--
--
6.8¢
YES 7%
--
1K
✓
C48
Will Anna's Archive be permanently down by the end of the 2027? other
--
--
38.0¢
YES 38%
--
1K
✓
C48
Will Mewgenics get Overwhelmingly Positive reviews on Steam after 14 days? other
--
--
1.1¢
YES 1%
--
1K
✓
C48
Will this resolve YES? other
--
--
3.8¢
YES 4%
--
1K
✓
C48
Will significant strides be made in cracking dolphin language by 2026? other
--
--
44.0¢
YES 44%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will the Rongorongo (proto Rapa Nui) glyphs be deciphered by the end of 2029? other
--
--
24.5¢
YES 25%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will Roblox Die in 2027? other
--
--
21.0¢
YES 21%
0.0%
1K
✓
C48
Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026? technology
4.6¢
--
--
YES 5%
--
281K
✓
C48
Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025? technology
--
--
9.3¢
YES 9%
--
6K
✓
C48
Anthropic's Claude 5 released before 4/20 technology
--
--
35.8¢
YES 36%
--
6K
✓
C48
will northeast title and tag open tomorrow at 9am? other
--
--
75.8¢
YES 76%
--
1K
✓
C48
Will Deepseek release Deepseek V3.3? other
--
--
14.6¢
YES 15%
--
1K
✓
C48
Australia reverses under-16 social media ban in 2026? other
--
--
8.3¢
YES 8%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will manifold reintroduce real money betting by 2026? other
--
--
11.8¢
YES 12%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will this Yudkowsky tweet hold up? other
--
--
98.2¢
YES 98%
--
7K
✓
C48
Will arxiv still exist in 2030? other
--
--
95.6¢
YES 96%
--
6K
✓
C48
Will there be a One Piece collaboration with Fortnite by the end of 2026? other
--
--
58.8¢
YES 59%
--
6K
✓
C48
Will X Mail launch by the end of 2026? science
--
--
50.0¢
YES 50%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will @LivGorton end up at Anthropic by end of 2026? technology
--
--
50.0¢
YES 50%
--
1K
✓
C48
Will the United States government admit there are alien UFOs by July 4? other
--
--
4.7¢
YES 5%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close? other
--
--
38.7¢
YES 39%
--
6K
✓
C48
Will we discover alien life before 2027? other
--
--
2.0¢
YES 2%
0.0%
24K
⚠
C48
Will Claude Opus 5 be released in February 2026? technology
--
--
1.9¢
YES 2%
0.0%
1K
✓
C48
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? other
48.5¢
--
--
YES 49%
--
76.0M
✓
C48
Will the Voynich manuscript be deciphered by 2030? 📖🔎⁉️ other
--
--
20.7¢
YES 21%
0.0%
6K
✓
C48
Will Psychonauts 3 be announced before the end of 2026? other
--
--
28.0¢
YES 28%
--
0K
✓
C48
Will Manifold Markets still be around by 2030? other
--
--
97.8¢
YES 98%
--
6K
✓
C48
Will X (Twitter) still exist in 2030? other
--
--
81.0¢
YES 81%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will Anthropic release a first-party image generation model in 2026? technology
--
--
43.0¢
YES 43%
--
6K
✓
C48
Aging cured by 2040 if AGI by 2030? technology
--
--
29.0¢
YES 29%
--
1K
✓
C48
Will Darien Village at Próspera be officially completed by EOY 2027? other
--
--
47.9¢
YES 48%
0.0%
6K
✓
C48
Will the Fehmarn Belt Tunnel open in 2029 or before? other
--
--
8.0¢
YES 8%
0.0%
1K
✓
C48
Will Elon Musk opensource Grok 3 within 6 months? (By Feb 23 2026) technology
--
--
1.0¢
YES 1%
--
6K
✓
C48
Any FrontierMath Open Problems problem solved before March? other
--
--
13.4¢
YES 13%
--
6K
✓
C48
Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026? other
7.0¢
--
--
YES 7%
--
857K
⚠
C48
Will there be a LessOnline in 2026? other
--
--
97.0¢
YES 97%
--
1K
✓
C48
Will a practically useful cryptographic program obfuscation scheme be invented before 2035? other
--
--
32.8¢
YES 33%
--
1K
✓
C48
Will I still be an active Manifold user in 8 years (08.12.2033) ? other
--
--
47.2¢
YES 47%
--
1K
✓
C48
Will a decipherment of the Voynich Manuscript be scientifically recognized by end of Dec 31, 2026 other
--
--
5.0¢
YES 5%
--
6K
✓
C48
Will Moltbook survive through feb 2026? other
--
--
93.3¢
YES 93%
--
1K
✓
C48
Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026? technology
--
--
15.7¢
YES 16%
--
6K
✓
C48
Will a multi-agent system have its time horizon evaluated by METR before August 2026? other
--
--
37.1¢
YES 37%
0.0%
6K
✓
C48
Barbie Movie Stock other
--
--
61.0¢
YES 61%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will Victoria be the last monarch of Sweden? other
--
--
40.9¢
YES 41%
--
6K
✓
C48
[ACX 2026] Will GTA VI be released during 2026? other
--
--
73.7¢
YES 74%
0.0%
--
✓
C48
Will X.com be accessible in the UK on 31st March? other
--
--
95.6¢
YES 96%
0.0%
6K
✓
C48
Will Redwood Research still exist in 3 years? other
--
--
93.9¢
YES 94%
--
6K
✓
C48
will the Lafyette highway finish on 2027 as they say its going to? other
--
--
25.7¢
YES 26%
0.0%
1K
✓
C48
Will the Nintendo Switch 2 be hacked within 12 months of its release date? other
--
--
6.8¢
YES 7%
--
7K
✓
C48
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? [actually] other
--
--
2.0¢
YES 2%
--
1K
✓
C48
Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again? technology
--
--
31.4¢
YES 31%
--
8K
✓
C48
Will a sequel to "Fallout: New Vegas" be announced by the end of 2026? other
--
--
8.5¢
YES 8%
--
6K
✓
C48
Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000 other
--
--
17.5¢
YES 17%
--
9K
✓
C48
Will "Five Nights at Freddy’s 3" be released by the end of 2027? other
--
--
73.0¢
YES 73%
--
1K
✓
C48
Will there be a Minecraft Java Marketplace by the end of 2027? other
--
--
19.0¢
YES 19%
--
1K
✓
C48
Will Fremantle, Gold Coast or GWS win an AFL premiership by the end of 2027? other
--
--
31.2¢
YES 31%
--
1K
✓
C48
Will Library Genesis completely shut down at any point before 2026? other
--
--
28.0¢
YES 28%
--
1K
✓
C48
Will Joe Biden live to see Slay the Spire 2 release in Steam Early Access? politics
--
--
99.0¢
YES 99%
--
6K
✓
C48
Will 100,000 people pledge to attend Eliezer's Don't Build It march before 2027? other
--
--
13.0¢
YES 13%
--
1K
✓
C48
If Discord rolls out global age verification requirements, will the age verification data be breached in 2026? other
--
--
22.0¢
YES 22%
--
1K
✓
C48
Will Manifold create a system facilitating (and enforcing) player to player loans by EOY 2030 other
--
--
11.2¢
YES 11%
--
1K
✓
C48
new Fooming Shoggoths song by April 1st 2026? other
--
--
48.7¢
YES 49%
--
6K
✓
C48
#2 US Netflix Show on Feb 23, 2026? other
--
0.1¢
--
YES 1%
--
--
✓
C48
Will I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028? other
--
--
2.3¢
YES 2%
--
7K
✓
C48
Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars? technology
--
--
73.7¢
YES 74%
--
8K
✓
C48
Will Minecraft die off by 2040 other
--
--
4.0¢
YES 4%
--
1K
✓
C48
Grok 5 released before July? other
--
--
70.0¢
YES 70%
--
1K
✓
C48
Will Rutracker be online in the Internet after 3 years? other
--
--
91.2¢
YES 91%
--
6K
✓
C48
Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026? other
--
--
91.2¢
YES 91%
--
6K
✓
C48
Phoebe Bridgers releases new album by 2027 other
--
--
74.5¢
YES 75%
--
6K
✓
C48
(M2500 bounty) Will @jollyroger182 agree that one should put substantial effort into AI safety before March 2026? technology
--
--
17.6¢
YES 18%
--
6K
✓
C48
Will Tor Parsons (Tor's Cabinet of Curiosities) publicly come out as trans by EoY 2026? other
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--
20.0¢
YES 20%
--
1K
✓
C48
Will Anthropic natively integrate image generation into Claude and/or Claude Code in 2026? technology
--
--
62.2¢
YES 62%
--
6K
✓
C48
Will Próspera break ground on another 10+ floor building before EOY 2027? other
--
--
52.7¢
YES 53%
0.0%
3K
✓
C48
Will there be a trans-outing webapp for uploading pics of people to see if they're trans (wth >80% accuracy) by EOY2026? other
--
--
11.7¢
YES 12%
--
1K
✓
C48
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026? other
15.5¢
--
--
YES 16%
--
7.3M
✓
C48
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? other
56.5¢
--
--
YES 56%
--
5.4M
✓
C48
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? technology
9.8¢
--
--
YES 10%
--
6.0M
✓
C48
Will the sixth novel in the A Song Of Ice And Fire series be released before the death of George R. R. Martin? other
--
--
52.4¢
YES 52%
--
4K
✓
C48
Will Manifold miss me when I'm gone? other
--
--
89.0¢
YES 89%
--
6K
✓
C48
Will Amanda Askell still be a power at Anthropic, EOY 2027? technology
--
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75.0¢
YES 75%
--
6K
✓
C48
[READ DESCRIPTION] Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? [Polymarket] other
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--
50.0¢
YES 50%
--
1K
✓
C48
Will the UK government mention quantum computing in an official policy speech within the next month? technology
--
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99.0¢
YES 99%
--
11K
✓
C48
Will ChatGPT or another AI tool be officially integrated into WhatsApp by May 2026? technology
--
--
69.0¢
YES 69%
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6K
✓
C48
Will Claude Code support the .agents/skills/ standard before March? technology
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--
38.6¢
YES 39%
--
6K
✓
C48
Will Marvin (AI agent @marvin_panics) raise $100K in pre-seed funding by March 1, 2026? technology
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--
12.0¢
YES 12%
--
1K
✓
C48
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? other
52.0¢
--
--
YES 52%
--
5.1M
✓
C48
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? technology
58.5¢
--
--
YES 59%
--
2.2M
✓
C48
Cluster Stats
EVENTS
227
AVG PROB
40.7%
AVG SPREAD
0.0%
MAX SPREAD
0.0%
Price Divergence

— no significant divergence —

Arbitrage Signals
98%Δ
Will we get a new Gemini, Claude, GPT, and Grok model this week?
vs. Will Harvard *or* MIT *or* both close on Monday February 23, 2026?
98%Δ
Will we get a new Gemini, Claude, GPT, and Grok model this week?
vs. Will Joe Biden live to see Slay the Spire 2 release in Steam Early Access?
98%Δ
Will we get a new Gemini, Claude, GPT, and Grok model this week?
vs. Will BLɅϽKPIИK release an album by February 28?
98%Δ
Will Mewgenics get Overwhelmingly Positive reviews on Steam after 14 days?
vs. Will Harvard *or* MIT *or* both close on Monday February 23, 2026?
98%Δ
Will Mewgenics get Overwhelmingly Positive reviews on Steam after 14 days?
vs. Will Joe Biden live to see Slay the Spire 2 release in Steam Early Access?
Directional Consensus
47 bull
46 neutral
103 bear
AI Analysis
Analysis generation failed: wrong number of arguments (given 1, expected 0)
Generated 2026-02-23 05:42 UTC